Public Health Crunch

The facts that pro-gun advocates don’t want you to know the day after the Virginia Tech shootings

Don’t be fooled by the weak stories of the pro-gun groups are insensitively pushing the day after the Virginia Tech shootings.  The pro-gun advocates, such as Larry Pratt, state: “The shootings at Virginia Tech highlight the need to allow weapons on campus and at businesses because gun carriers will protect themselves and other students by shooting the perpetrators of gun violence.”

Pro-gun argument #1: As evidence for their claim pro-gun advocates states that a killer was stopped at the Appalachian School of Law when two students were able to go off campus to their vehicles and get their guns which they used to subdue the killer.

Cold hard truth #1: In the Appalachian School of Law incident, the killer stopped shooting because he ran out of ammo, not because he was shot by other gun toting students. Also the students that finally did subdue the killer were trained off-duty policemen who grabbed not only their guns, but bulletproof vests and handcuffs from their cars.

Pro-gun argument #2: Another argument the pro gun advocates are pushing is “All the school shootings that have ended abruptly in the last ten years were stopped because a law-abiding citizen — a potential victim — had a gun.”

Cold hard truth #2: Let’s review the cold hard facts (as stated by David Hemenway Director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center):

1. Moses Lake [Washington], a 14-year-old honors student, opens fire in algebra class. He stopped when he was tackled by a teacher.

2. West Paducah, Ky., a 14-year-old kills three students and wounds five others at a prayer group. He drops the pistol when he’s approached by a principal and another student. No gun involved with the principal or the other student.

3. The 1999 Columbine High School killers took their own lives with the guns they’d used to kill 25 others, hours before a SWAT team stormed the building.

Hemenway said statistics show that in general, firearms don’t mix well with colleges, known for combustible elements like heavy drinking and romantic complications.  “People get drunk, people get angry, they’re going to use their guns.” He concluds that “We do know that where there’s more guns, there’s lots more death. There’s more homicides, more suicides, more gun death.”

Pro-gun argument #3: What about examples where allowing guns on campus seems to work? “Isn’t it interesting that Utah and Oregon are the only two states that allows faculty to carry guns on campus,” Pratt said in his statement, “[and] you haven’t read about any school or university shootings in Utah or Oregon?”

Cold hard truth #3: School shootings are rare occurrences to begin with, thus, the probability of seeing an event in these states is naturally reduced. Second the population of Utah and Oregon are relatively low, so the probability of seeing an event in these states is naturally low (less people in a state, less chance an event will occur). Another rebuttal, just because an event has not occurred in the past does not guarantee it will not happen in the future.  One final rebuttal to pro-gun argument #3: Massachusetts, has strict gun control laws and like Utah and Oregon there are no known school shootings.

Pro-gun argument #4: The shootings at Virginia Tech highlights the need to allow weapons on campus and at businesses because gun carriers will protect themselves and other students by shooting the perpetrators of gun violence. 

Cold hard truth #4: The probability of innocent students getting caught in the crossfire of the killer and the armed untrained student may actually increase fatalities. Simply put, the more flying bullets (regardless of who pulled the trigger) the higher the probability of someone getting hit. In conclusion, when you boil the arguments down the pro-gun advocates are saying the answer to gun violence is more guns….the cold hard truth is that if noone had guns, there would be no gun fatalities!  

Short term financial impact of the Virginia Tech Massacre on gun manufactures

The following chart displays a comparison of price percentage changes for the five day time period from April 11 to April 17, 2007. The VT shootings occurred on April 16th. Please click to enlarge.

Please note that the blue line is Smith & Wesson gun manufacture, the red line is Sturm, Ruger & Company gun manufacture, the yellow line is the S&P500 index.

The following chart displays a comparison of price percentage changes for the approximately seven year time period from Aug 2006 to April 17, 2007. Please click to enlarge.

In the short term (1.5 days after the VT shootings) gun manufactures experienced a decreasing trend. Over the long run, Smith & Wesson, the gun company, has fared extremely well in the stock market with an 1254.34% increase. The stock of Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc.the only other publicly listed U.S. gun manufacturer, has more closely mirrored the ups and downs of the market. However, it too ended this time period with an overall 33.03% increase. Interestingly, I could not find the stock information for gun manufactures during the The Columbine High School massacre which occurred on April 20 1999. Anyone have this information?